Warner Bros.’ much-awaited sequel, Joker: Folie à Deux, has finally hit theaters. Early signs suggest it may earn between $45M to $50M during its opening weekend. However, this $190M movie’s box office journey might be more difficult than expected. Directed by Todd Phillips and starring Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, this sequel takes a musical turn. But will it meet audience expectations?

Friday Box Office Numbers

The movie had a decent start, making $20M on Friday, including $7M from Thursday night previews. While this points to a possible $50M weekend, it could drop to $45M. Comparing it to The Marvels, which earned $21.6M on its first day and $46.1M over the weekend, there are concerns about whether Joker 2 can keep up.

Comparing with Other Big Movies

Joker: Folie à Deux faces tough competition from other films. For example, The Marvels had a higher production cost of $270M, compared to Joker 2‘s $190M. Both movies have mixed reviews and might struggle to maintain their weekend earnings.

Why Social Media May Not Help Enough

Despite having a strong social media presence, Joker 2 is still facing challenges. The movie has 567.3M followers across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, and other platforms, which is 7% higher than the typical superhero movie. Lady Gaga’s large fan base (231.3M followers) created some excitement early on, but the enthusiasm faded after the Venice Film Festival, where reviews weren’t very positive.

Lady Gaga’s Star Power

Lady Gaga’s fans helped generate over 43.7M views on Instagram, and many thought her popularity would boost the film’s success. However, this might not be enough, especially since presales of tickets didn’t go as well as expected.

What Critics Are Saying

The initial excitement for Joker: Folie à Deux has been dampened by mixed reviews. It debuted with a 62% rating on Rotten Tomatoes after its Venice screening but has since dropped further. These reviews are hurting ticket sales, and audiences aren’t responding much better.

Mixed Reception at Venice Film Festival

The Venice Film Festival usually sets the stage for awards season movies, but Joker 2 didn’t impress. The mixed reception at Venice has made it difficult for the film to bounce back with regular audiences.

The Musical Twist: Not Loved by Fans

One of the biggest risks for Joker: Folie à Deux was turning it into a musical. While Joaquin Phoenix’s portrayal of Joker was widely praised in the first movie, this new direction hasn’t been popular with hardcore fans. According to PostTrak, only 40% of viewers gave positive feedback, and many rated the film low after seeing it on Thursday night.

A Risky Genre Change

Changing from the dark drama of the original Joker to a musical was a bold move. While both Phoenix and Lady Gaga are talented performers, their on-screen chemistry might not be enough to win over audiences who didn’t expect a musical.

Will Saturday Be a Problem?

There is growing concern about a possible “Saturday drop” in ticket sales. Although Friday’s numbers were solid, the polarized opinions of early viewers could mean the movie will lose steam quickly. Films that do well in their opening weekend often rely on positive word-of-mouth, which Joker 2 isn’t getting.

Competing Films

This weekend isn’t just about Joker: Folie à Deux. Other films are also competing for the top spot:

The Wild Robot from DreamWorks made $4.9M on Friday, with a $19.5M weekend expected.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is still going strong in its 5th weekend, with a projected $11.4M weekend, nearing a total of $266.5M.
Transformers One is expected to bring in $5.5M for the weekend in its 3rd week.
Speak No Evil, a horror thriller, earned $900K on Friday, with a 3-day projection of $3M.

The First Joker: What’s Different?

The original Joker opened in 2019 with a $96.2M domestic opening, setting a record for the biggest October opening ever. In comparison, Joker: Folie à Deux is set to open with almost half that amount, down by 47%. The difference could be due to the genre switch and post-pandemic trends affecting box office numbers.

Audience Feedback

While early audience reactions are concerning, Joker 2 is still waiting for its CinemaScore rating, which usually offers a more balanced view. However, even with a decent CinemaScore, the movie’s success will depend on overcoming the negative buzz.

Conclusion: Can Joker: Folie à Deux Survive?

At this point, Joker: Folie à Deux is in a tough spot. While it’s still on track to hit its $45M-$50M target, the mixed reviews, fan rejection, and poor word-of-mouth could make it hard for the film to maintain momentum. Only time will tell if this ambitious sequel can pull through or fade away.

FAQs

Why did Joker: Folie à Deux become a musical?
The decision to make it a musical was likely to offer a fresh experience and stand out from the original Joker. However, it has proven to be controversial with fans.
How did Joker: Folie à Deux perform on its opening day?
It earned $20M on its first Friday, including $7M from Thursday previews, putting it in a tricky position for the rest of the weekend.
What’s affecting the box office performance of Joker: Folie à Deux?
Negative word-of-mouth, the musical format, and mixed audience reception are the main factors affecting its performance.
How does Joker: Folie à Deux compare to the first movie?
The original Joker opened with $96.2M, while the sequel is expected to open with about half of that.
Can Lady Gaga’s star power save Joker: Folie à Deux?
Even though Lady Gaga has a huge following, it might not be enough to overcome the movie’s mixed reviews and audience reactions.